March 17, 2025
Last week, Anthony Albanese spent a relaxed 15 minutes talking about footy on Nova Perth 93.7 before the conversation moved on to worthier matters, such as Donald Trump. The PM voiced his concerns about Trump's tariffs on aluminium and steel before the host steered the discussion to China.
Shaun McManus said Chinese tariffs on barley, wine, crayfish and other agricultural products had been "way more than 25 per cent". "Plus, they're doing bogie laps around Australia where there are frigates and stuff. That surely has to be more concerning."
"Well, China, we fixed the relationship," Anthony Albanese responded. "We fixed that through diplomacy."
Of the many words that could describe the state of play between Australia and China, "fixed" does not readily come to mind. Not after last month's unannounced live-fire naval exercises, 150 nautical miles east of Sydney, causing commercial flights to be re-routed between Australia and New Zealand.
If the Chinese navy is looking for a spot of target practice, there must be a suitable location closer to home than the Tasman Sea, some 5500 nautical miles from Shanghai.
It was not the action of a friend. It was a show of strength designed to intimidate and expose Australia's weakness. It succeeded. Albanese tried to excuse China by saying its action was "in accordance with international law".
"We have boats in the South China Sea, and we do exercises all the time," he said.
Yet there is no moral equivalence between Australian rightof-passage exercises in the South China Sea and China's reckless live-fire exercises act. Australian ships and aircraft participate in those exercises with others to protect international shipping lanes from China's imperial ambitions.
China's claim to the Spratly and Parcel Islands and Scarborough Shoal is based on the "NineDash Line", which the 2016 Hague Tribunal rejected as having no legal basis under international law. Yet the PM thinks he can smooth things over with a plate of shellfish.
"The relationship is far improved," he told Nova Perth listeners. "I brought the Chinese Premier here to WA, of course, last year, and that was well received. We did have lobster for lunch. And that helped."
The optimism inspired by Trump's second inauguration was short-lived. Trump promised that America's power would "stop all wars and bring a new spirit of unity to a world that has been angry, violent, and totally unpredictable".
His irascible diplomacy has achieved the very opposite.
America's allies have reason to feel less safe now than they were under Joe Biden, with the possible exception of Israel.
In his attempts to assert America's moral authority, Trump has diminished it. If he is prepared to rip up free-trade agreements, can we trust the US to abide by its ANZUS obligation to act to meet a common danger if Australia and New Zealand came under armed attack? Trump's worsening relations with Canada should disabuse us of any idea that the US sees mutual value in defence and trade partnerships. In Trump's zero-sum world, the only question is who is screwing who.
The development of the Alberta oil sands in Canada in the 1990s offered the US a secure and stable oil supply away from the Middle East. In 2001, at the start of the invasion of Iraq, the US was importing 2.7 billion barrels of oil a day from the Persian Gulf. Last year, it was less than a fifth as much.
Canadian imports in 2001 amounted to 1.8 billion a day. Last year, it was 4.6 billion a day. In Trump's zero-sum world, the US energy deficit with Canada is an unmitigated negative.
Yet, if flows from the Enbridge Mainline and Keystone Pipeline lessen the risk of being forced to put boots on the ground in the Middle East, access to Canadian oil will be an incalculable benefit to the US. The 10 per cent tariff Trump intends to slap on Canadian energy exports only assists America's enemies.
If Trump thought Canada would crumble under its lameduck-woke prime minister, Justin Trudeau, he underestimated Canada's residual national pride.
Trudeau and his successor, Mark Carney, have surged in the polls, pulling back much of the 20-point lead the Conservatives enjoyed before Christmas.
Polling at the weekend found Carney neck and neck with the Conservatives' Pierre Poilievre in an election expected to be called within weeks, if not days.
Albanese will find it much harder to exploit the Trump effect. Trudeau flew to Mar-a-Lago in December to persuade the president-elect to see sense. Albanese struggles to get the President to answer his phone call. He assured Nova listeners on Friday that Australia would continue to argue its case. "Kevin is working really hard," he added.
In January, on the eve of Trump's inauguration, the PM broke the news on ABC AM that Rudd had had a meeting with Trump. "There has been direct contact, which is a good thing," Albanese said.
Asked whether that meeting occurred at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate, Albanese would not say.
"I'll leave that detail to go through to the keeper," he said. "We engage diplomatically, rather than go into those details. That's how we get things done, that's how you do diplomacy, and that's how you get results."
In February, Senator James Paterson sought more detail in Senate estimates from Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade officials.
Paterson: "Can you tell me the date of that direct contact?" DFAT secretary Jan Adams: "I might have to take that on notice."
Paterson: "Can you say where the meeting was?" Wong: "I refer to the previous answer."
Paterson: "Do you know whether it was a sit-down meeting?" Elly Lawson, deputy secretary, strategic planning: "I will take it on notice."
Paterson: "How long it was scheduled for?" Lawson: "I will take that on notice."
Paterson: "Do you know whether it was organised by the embassy or by a third party?" Lawson: "I'll take that on notice."
Paterson: "Was a diplomatic cable produced following the meeting?" Lawson: "We will provide you with all of these."
What we know about the meeting, if it took place, is that it did not dissuade Australia's most important ally from slapping tariffs on our aluminium and steel.
We know, too, that our relationship with the US is at its lowest since the Whitlam government, and the PM is way out of his depth.
Albanese will find it much harder to exploit the Trump effect. Trudeau flew to Mar-aLago in December to persuade the president-elect to see sense.
Albanese struggles to get the President to answer his phone call. He assured Nova listeners on Friday that Australia would continue to argue its case. "Kevin is working really hard," he added