March 5, 2022
Washington | After visiting the CIA, FBI, National Security Agency and Congress this week, Australian Senator James Paterson has clear messages on what the US thinks about the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
And they are all about China – the economic powerhouse accounting for 18 per cent of global GDP – almost six times that of Russia.
“China is still the No.1 topic on everyone’s mind in Congress and the administration right now,” said Mr Paterson, 34, chairman of the Australian Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security.
Unlike Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s potential invasion of Taiwan brings two distinctly more dangerous threats, he told AFR Weekend. They include a likely commitment of US and Australian military forces and a substantially greater economic shock if sanctions were enforced, which Mr Paterson said the US would most certainly do.
“US and its allies very early on, took the military option off the table in relation to Ukraine, but they have never done that with Taiwan.”
“They maintain that policy of strategic ambiguity, they have never ruled out military action. And so unlike Russia, which was confident that there’ll be no military resistance from the West if it invaded Ukraine, China cannot be confident that they will not. And so, it’s an extra level of deterrence in relation to Taiwan.”
While saving lives is critical for policymakers in Washington, the senator said the next consequence racing through top American officials’ minds relates to sanctions and economic fallout.
“My hope is that China will learn the right lessons from Ukraine in relation to Taiwan. The world has demonstrated incredible resolve, and an incredible willingness to enact a very high cost for Russia for what it’s done. The world has actually been very organised and moved quickly to impose those costs and gone further than everyone would have predicted they would.”
“The United States has already imposed sanctions on some Chinese companies like Huawei to prevent them from getting access to US technology in peacetime with no conflicts. If they’re willing to do it for Russia, then the rest of the world might be willing to go much further on China than we previously assumed.”
The focus of interpreting what happens with Russia in Ukraine as a proxy for China and Taiwan has also raised Australia as a much more relevant partner than ever before. One sure sign of this is the ease with which the senator secured meetings in the US.
“We’ve met with senior members of Congress, senior members of the administration, all the intelligence agencies, and no one has said no to meeting with us, no one said they were too busy or not available,” said Mr Paterson, who also met defence officials.
“In 2008 we weren’t a significant player by any stretch of the imagination. We are now a decisive player in the biggest question facing the US. We’re not playing a peripheral part, we are playing a central part now.”
“They are deeply appreciative of what we’re doing and admiring of the fact that as a relatively small country, we have been so assertive in standing up [to China].”
Senator Paterson has been going through the requirements to implement the military intelligence sharing arrangement AUKUS. He said the war in Ukraine has notably sped up the need for action on the legislation required for AUKUS, including sharing intellectual property.
“Ukraine had a really powerful warning in 2014, when Russia took Crimea, and when they took Crimea it was a pushover. But what did you find happened between 2014 and 2022? Ukraine modernised, and they put themselves in a position today to be able to resist successfully. They used those eight years, extremely productively.”
“And that’s a message for all of us. Because we might not have eight years to prepare for the conflict. And we might not have something as decisive as 2014 to warn us.”
