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October 21, 2023
The Liberals have been emboldened by a strong No referendum vote in the Labor-held seat of McEwen, which straddles the bush and Melbourne's outer northern suburbs, and believe it could turn blue at the next election.
But locals are unconvinced.
Some voters at the shopping centre in Wallan, about five minutes' walk from MP Rob Mitchell's electorate office, slammed the federal Labor government for spending more than $400 million to hold the referendum.
Others gave credit to Labor for following through on a promise when polling predicted defeat.
Daniel Osituyo, 37, a disability support worker from Wallan, voted Yes.
He voted Labor at last year's election, and plans to do so again, but said the referendum could damage the government's prospects with others.
"I voted Yes because I think it is important to give Indigenous people a stronger voice," Mr Osituyo told AFR Weekend. "But something like this will always cause division. Can it affect Labor going forward? Maybe."
More than 52 per cent of McEwen's homes are under a mortgage, well above Victoria's average of 36 per cent and the national average of 35 per cent, meaning voters will be feeling the pain of 12 interest rate rises in 14 months.
The seat has been held by Labor since 2010 but returned a No vote last weekend of 61.04 per cent.
Liberal insiders see it as one of the three most winnable seats for the Coalition in Victoria at the next federal election, alongside Labor-held Aston, which returned a No vote of 58.53 per cent, and Indi, held by independent Helen Haines, which returned a 67.80 per cent No vote.
Liberal senator James Paterson said McEwen was a "high-priority target".
"Aspirational communities like McEwen had already been trending our way and they've just rejected the prime minister's signature domestic policy initiative from his first 18 months in office," he told AFR Weekend.
But Geoff Clarke, 71, a retired insurance broker who campaigned for Yes, said locals getting burnt by the cost of living are angrier at big supermarkets and airlines than the government.
"They're going to vote with their wallet before they change their vote at the ballot box. Just you watch," he said.
Mr Clarke pointed out that only 81.1 per cent of the electorate voted in the referendum. This was way down on the 92.23 per cent of voters who turned out last year when Mr Mitchell beat Liberal candidate Richard Welch with a margin of 3.28 per cent, despite taking a 2 per cent haircut.
"Some 20,000 people didn't vote at all because the Yes campaign didn't make the case strongly enough. So I don't actually think the No vote means Labor is set to lose McEwen," he said.
Asked whether the No vote could tip him out of McEwen, Mr Mitchell said: "It's pretty smug and typically arrogant of Peter Dutton to think everyone who voted No is going to vote Liberal."
One No voter in the shopping centre, Rex, 71, who preferred not to give his surname, said seeing Indigenous politicians such as Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Lidia Thorpe, as well as former boxer Anthony Mundine, campaign against the Voice made him question it.
He was frustrated the government spent money on it - the Australian Electoral Commission has estimated the referendum cost $450 million while spruiking its $10 billion commitment to build 30,000 affordable homes.
"It was definitely a No from me.
What a bloody waste of money at a time they keep going on about housing.
They could have built houses here with that money. I used to vote Labor, but now I'm voting Liberal," he said.
Another shopper, Vicki, who also asked not to give her surname, said she voted No because Indigenous people were already in parliament.
"The Labor government should focus on the economy. I think this will be damaging for Albanese," she said.
Noor Omaid, who voted Yes, said Labor fulfilled its election promise "I don't think people will turn on Labor because of this. They said they would run it and they did," the 32-year-old said.
Evelyn Coutts, 18, and Erinn Clark, 25, voted Yes. Ms Clark said she would continue to vote Labor.
"The Voice wasn't going to give Indigenous people overbearing power, just basic representation," she said.
Ms Coutts said: "It was important for Indigenous people to have a say about their own lives, rather than the government just saying what's best for them."
