March 15, 2022
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ANDY PARKS: That's the message from the Chair of the Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee who's just returned from a two week visit to the United States and to Britain. Liberal Senator James Paterson used the trip to warn that Russia's invasion of Ukraine could inspire similar actions from China in Taiwan. Overnight US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and China's top diplomat met in Rome after the White House cautioned Beijing it would face consequences if it helps Russia evade sanctions. Senator James Paterson joins me now on RN Drive. Welcome to you.
SENATOR JAMES PATERSON: Thank you for having me.
PARKS: You used a speech in London to argue we do not have eight years to get ready for war with China, referring to the eight years between Russia's annexation of Crimea and what we're watching unfold in Europe today. What is that timeframe based on?
SENATOR PATERSON: Well, look, I have to be really careful about what I say relating to classified information, but what I can say is that what we're trying to do is avoid conflict in the region. We're trying to deter conflict in the region, and deterrence requires two things. It requires very clear intent and very clear capability. And together with our allies and partners in the region, we can contribute meaningfully to that. And AUKUS is a very important part of doing that. But the truth is, there is not a lot of time.We know that the Chinese Communist Party does have ambitions to annex Taiwan,and we are sending a very clear and stable message that only a peaceful resolution of those Cross Straits tensions are acceptable and that the self-determination of the Taiwanese people must be put at the heart of any resolution.
PARKS: But isn't that message, that public message that you're talking about with AUKUS partners together in this action, doesn't it make China and what happens in Taiwan even more inevitable?
SENATOR PATERSON: Look, I hope it doesn't, and that our intention is to make sure that it's not. The worst thing that we could do is inadvertently send the message to China that we don't care about Taiwan, that we are indifferent about its fate, that we are relaxed about the how that issue may be resolved. Because that might send them the message that they should resort to military options to resolve that conflict. The policy of strategic ambiguity, which the United States has maintained, which we support, has been remarkably successful, actually, in preserving the peaceful status quo. And that's really what we're seeking to do to preserve the peaceful status quo. But as China acquires more capability, as it becomes more belligerent and aggressive in its rhetoric, it becomes clearer what its intentions are. And those intentions can only be held at bay by the United States and its allies being equally clear in return.
PARKS: So, you say that we don't have eight years to waste, but yet the defence capability gap means we won't be ready until 2040. Nuclear powered submarines are decades away from being delivered.How do these two ideas marry? I mean, do we have eight years to wait?
SENATOR PATERSON: Well, the Collins class submarines that we have now are a regionally superior capability, and the nuclear submarines are only one element of AUKUS. And yes, it's true they will probably arrive in the 2030s, although we don't know exactly when. That's being worked out right now with the review underway. But what we will get in the meantime is significantly enhanced cyber capability. What we are cooperating on right now is artificial intelligence and quantum computing. What we are working to deliver in a very short order is precision guided munitions that can be made herein Australia to provide us with the deterrent capability we need on a much quicker timeline than nuclear submarines. All of these things are an important part of the package.
PARKS: Last month, the Australian government called on China to use its special relationship with Russia to denounce Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. By way of contrast, today it's being reported that Beijing is already planning on offering the Kremlin financial support and is contemplating military support. Where does that leave us?
SENATOR PATERSON: I was very concerned to see those reports, and I know that it's having a great deal of concern registered in the United Kingdom and the United States as well, who were singing from the same song sheet as we are, which is; China talks about its commitment to territorial integrity and the sovereignty of states, and it has an opportunity to live up to that rhetoric by telling its very close partner and friend in Russia that its conduct in Ukraine is unacceptable. And it can help us do that by making sure that the sanctions that we've put in place to enact a very high cost for Putin and the kleptocrats are upheld and not undermined. And unfortunately, I think the indication so far is China has not been sincere about that rhetoric and is not living up to the moral standard it has held itself out to hold. And so, it's appropriate that the Prime Minister and many other world leaders hold them to their own words.
PARKS: Andy Park here on RN Drive, my guest is Senator James Paterson, the Chair of the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security. Senator, Taiwanese politician Wang Ting-yu says the strategic tactic of working with Taiwan but not officially recognising it as a separate nation is now outdated as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He says nations like Australia need to be more explicit in their support and tell Beijing where the red line is. Is Australia firm in its position that Taiwan is not a sovereign state?
SENATOR PATERSON: I've seen comments like that from a number of Taiwanese leaders, and I certainly understand their desire for more clarity here. But this is a very delicate and sensitive issue, and we do need to tread very carefully. There are risks on both sides. We wouldn't want China to misinterpret our intentions, but we also wouldn't want a premature change of the status quo on the Taiwanese side of the Straits, either. So, I think we do need to stick very rigidly to the status quo. We are making it clear where we stand, which is we support the peaceful status quo and we're opposed to any military resolution of it. But I think that's the appropriate place to continue to hold.
PARKS: Your government argues that the initial stage of the AUKUS partnership is critical. You argue deciding where, when, and how we share defence and security secrets is a priority. How far developed is that process of information sharing and when do you expect that process to start?
SENATOR PATERSON: The good news is that we've got the template there already. As part of the Five Eyes relationship, we have almost seamless sharing of intelligence and security information in the intelligence world, and that works remarkably well. It's the closest partnership on the planet for sharing of sensitive intelligence. What we have to do is transition that to military technology. And although there are some differences, and although the structures will be slightly different, we've got a template there and the work is already being done towards that. It's part of the review underway right now to help determine which submarine we pick and how we do it. It's a process that's running in parallel to that. And I think you'll see some developments on that in the coming months.
PARKS: The Prime Minister says the announcement of a dry dock in Western Australia is an early result of AUKUS. The US prefers Darwin as a location for the dry dock rather than WA. So why was WA selected despite these concerns?
SENATOR PATERSON: Well, I've seen some speculation in the media, unsourced speculation in the media, that the US has a preference. I haven't seen any officials, US officials say that, and certainly that wasn't the message that I received while I was in the United States. Australia, of course, is a sovereign nation and has the right to determine its own national security in our own national interest. And these things are very carefully considered based on a range of different factors, including their strategic positioning and access to the industrial base needed to support these and the government made these decisions appropriately considering all those factors.
PARKS: So, you're not saying that because of Chinese ownership of a port in Darwin, that would put us in a bit of a pincer move with both China and the US?
SENATOR PATERSON: Well, I've been publicly outspoken saying that I believe that the lease of the Port of Darwin was a mistake and that it shouldn't have happened. And had that proposal been made again today, I think it's virtually certain that it would not proceed because we have changed the law significantly to make sure that it is the federal government that would have the final say on a proposal like that in the future. But we are where we are. We have to work from where we are today. We can't undo decisions of the past and we accept that.
PARKS: Senator, thank you so much for your time tonight.
SENATOR PATERSON: Thank you for having me.
