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March 28, 2025
BEN FORDHAM: Well, we want to hear from both sides of politics this morning. Joel Fitzgibbon, the former Labor Defence Minister, is joining us and also the Shadow Minister for Home Affairs, James Paterson. Let's go to Joel Fitzgibbon first if I can. Joel, good morning to you.
JOEL FITZGIBBON: Good morning, Ben.
FORDHAM: Is Albo going to win this thing?
FITZGIBBON: I think he'll come out in front. But we have a five-week election campaign ahead of us, Ben. And as you know, lots can change along that pathway. Good things will happen to each of the leaders. Mistakes will be made either by them or by someone else. Events happen domestically or globally, which push the debate into the area, saying the strengths for the respective parties. So, like a footy match, it's a bit of luck in politics as well. I can't predict it. It'll be a pretty tight contest.
FORDHAM: James Paterson, let me go to you. Why have the bookies switched from Peter Dutton back to Anthony Albanese?
JAMES PATERSON: Well, there are huge advantages of incumbency, Ben. And as you know, it's been 100 years since a first-term government has lost office. So we do have a big task ahead of us, but we are very competitive and it will be a close election. As Joel said, the Australian people will have to choose. Do they want three more years of Anthony Albanese and Labor, possibly in a hung parliament, as part of a minority government with the Greens and the Teals? Or do they want a strong leader in Peter Dutton, who can lead a majority Coalition government and get our country back on track?
FORDHAM: Joel, let me ask you, why have Mr. Dutton's numbers softened?
FITZGIBBON: Well, I will just pick up on James's point there about incumbency, Ben. Incumbency can be and has been in past elections an advantage. But we know right around the world at the moment because economies are struggling everywhere. Incumbency has become a bit of a curse for leaders. We've seen that in a number of countries in Europe. And of course, the most famous one is the United States, where Trump just only had to promise something different. He's a great disrupter. So the polls are loosening up a bit for Anthony Albanese. Things were looking a little bit challenging there for a while, but it has come back. I think there is a combination of things happening there. Obviously, the tax cuts help your family just a little bit. The all the major economic indices have been pretty healthy the last time round. The interest rate cut wasn't much, but it's a little bit, just enough maybe to make people think that things are on the improved. So a combination of things I think has helped Anthony Albanese in recent weeks, and he'll be hoping that continues.
FORDHAM: James Paterson, the Prime Minister, has been pretty fortunate with his timing, hasn't he, because he had a year from hell, of course, with The Voice. And then last year was not much better. And then at the start of this year, all of a sudden, an interest rate cut. So that's helped the Prime Minister with his economic narrative.
PATERSON: Sure, Ben, but one interest rate cut after 12 increases is not going to make a difference to most Australian families. In fact, the average Australian family with a mortgage is $50,000 worse off under this prime minister, and they have no hope of further relief in sight under this government because, as the Reserve Bank Governor has said, inflation has become a home-grown phenomenon on this government's watch because they haven't been able to keep control of spending. They've added billions of dollars of debt and deficit. And now in the budget, we know we have ten years of deficits, and we're going to reach $1.2 trillion of debt on this government's watch. And that's why we think we need to get back to basics when it comes to economic management and budget management. And only a Liberal and National government can deliver that.
FORDHAM: This is the Shadow Minister for Home Affairs, James Paterson. We're also talking to the former Labor defence minister, Joel Fitzgibbon. Joel, what about campaigning? Because that's a whole other element in this equation. Just how good each leader is when it comes to hitting the campaign trail. We've seen politicians before who've been good in other areas when it comes to the campaign, though, they struggle.
FITZGIBBON: Yeah, we all know that Albo had a couple of bad moments during the last election campaign, but jeez, he has had three years now as Prime Minister. It's a pretty good training ground, isn't it? And I think he looks pretty match fit, and he's absolutely across his brief on the other side, though. Dutton looks very match fit, too; he's articulate, and he's stuck very, very closely to his main messaging. He wants the debate to be on the things where, on the matters which he's perceived to have the greatest strength, and of course, Albo is trying to push the debate to areas of traditional Labor strength. Both parties have very, very well-honed machines behind them in the campaign offices, very, very good machines. I don't know as much about the Coalition machine, but Labor is really, really good at this stuff and how the machine campaigns really matter.
FORDHAM: And let me go back to you, if I can right now, James Paterson, from a Liberal point of view, as far as Peter Dutton and his credentials go on the campaign trail, we haven't seen him in this role before as a leader. He certainly campaigned to hang on to his seat many times over the years, but what can we expect from Mr. Dutton when he's out there campaigning?
PATERSON: Ben, I do agree with Joel, Labor are formidable campaigners. They're very good at politics. It's just that they are lousy at governing. And that's the choice that Australians will face at the next election. Do you want a strong leader in Peter Dutton who will get our country back on track? Who'll get inflation under control. Who will reduce immigration. Who will build more houses. Who will guarantee the essential services and make your family better off. I mean, we're going to make immediate relief straight away by reducing fuel excise by half. That's $14 a week for a one car family that fills up once a week. It's up to $1,500 a year for a family that's filling up twice a week. So those are the messages that we'll be focusing on in the campaign. And Australians will face a really important choice. They get to shape the future of our country, and I'm very confident in the message we'll put to them.
FORDHAM: Gentlemen, can I say to both of you, thank you very much for picking up our call at short notice and for your analysis in the lead up to the election campaign.
PATERSON: Thank you.
FITZGIBBON: Thanks, Ben. Thanks, James.
ENDS