March 11, 2024
KIERAN GILBERT: Thanks for your time. I know that you've been up on the northern border of Israel with Lebanon, and the officials have briefed you on the situation as it relates to Hezbollah. How risky is that situation now that that will spread into an open an all out conflict in the northern border as well?
JAMES PATERSON: Kieran, there's been a low level intensity conflict at the northern Israeli border between the IDF and Hezbollah for six months now, and there has been casualties on both sides. There is very regular exchanges of fire. Just today there about 80 rockets that were launched from southern Lebanon into Israel, most of which were intercepted by Iron Dome or otherwise fell on areas that didn't cause casualties to Israeli citizens. But there are IDF members and others, including an Indian foreign worker, who have been killed by Hezbollah's attacks. Everyone is very anxious to make sure this does not escalate into a full scale war. But Israel has a very legitimate concern, which is that Hezbollah is in clear violation of UN resolution 1701, which was unanimously agreed by the United Nations Security Council in 2006, which says that that south of the Litani River must be a totally demilitarised zone. Hezbollah must have no weapons in the area. Well, right now, Hezbollah has not only stocked that area full of missiles and other munitions, but they are regularly operating from that area and firing into Israel just metres from that border fence and security wall between Israel and Lebanon, so they are in total violation of that UN security resolution. It has led to the evacuation of about 60,000 Israeli citizens south of that Lebanese border, who cannot safely return to their homes with the threat of up to 200,000 rockets controlled by Hezbollah pointed at them.
GILBERT: Is there a risk, though, with the imminent Rafah offensive in Gaza, the Prime Minister, Netanyahu, the Israeli PM, said that they're not going to stop the war and that includes Rafah, the last Hamas stronghold, as he put it. "Whoever tells us not to act in Rafah is telling us to lose the war, and that will not happen." He is pushing ahead with that. Is there a risk, Senator Paterson, that with that offensive coming, that that will provoke others in the region, maybe Hezbollah, Iran or others from retaliating and this providing the spark for what Israel is hoping to avoid and that being a region wide conflict.
PATERSON: Kieran there is a steely resolve among Israelis from the left to the right of the political spectrum that they must finish the operation in Gaza, and that involves removing all of the remaining Hamas brigades. They believe there's only four to six Hamas brigades left, compared to 22 at the start of the war. They are located in Rafah, but they believe to end the military operation now, would just simply allow Hamas to take over Gaza again, which would be no safety for the people of Gaza, for any Palestinian people, and of course not for the people of Israel. No one. There is no consensus as to why Hezbollah has not entered into the conflict in a more direct way. There are some who say that Iran has asked Hezbollah to not enter into the conflict in a more direct way, because they want to retain that threat, that insurance policy over Israel in case Israel ever decides to take action against Iran's nuclear facilities. There are others who say that Hezbollah has been successfully deterred by both the IDF and also the presence of U.S. carrier strike groups in the region, and President Biden has very clearly said any other actors that enter into this conflict will meet the full force of the US military might. But either way, it's very important that this issue is resolved. It cannot be resolved by conflict, it should be resolved diplomatically, and it should be resolved by Hezbollah complying with that 2006 UN resolution. It should be enforced by the international community. There are UN peacekeepers and monitors in the region right now, but they have not been able to successfully stop Hezbollah from rearming in that region. And the Hezbollah rockets that are in that region include more rudimentary basic rockets with a shorter range of, say, 5 or 10km, but also highly sophisticated precision guided weapons that have ranges of hundreds of kilometers that stretch as far as Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and put at risk almost all of Israel's civilian population. Now, that clearly is a totally unacceptable series of events. No democratic state would tolerate that risk on its border, and particularly not after the 7th of October. They do not want to see the 7th of October repeated again just for their northern communities.
GILBERT: There is an issue, though, isn't there? In terms of international views and legitimacy of Israel in the eyes of the international community there. Surely there is a sensitivity to that in Israel with those that you've spoken to. How do they navigate that?
PATERSON: Everyone agrees there's a absolutely dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, and one that it is not easy to rectify because there is current operations, military operations, taking place right now by the IDF to try and eliminate Hamas. And Hamas is fighting back and taking Israeli casualties on a regular basis. So to deliver aid in those circumstances is very difficult, not just to get it across the border, but once it's in Gaza, to deliver it to the people who need it. That's why you've seen the United States and others engage in airdrops and why they're exploring sea delivery of aid, because there is a very dire humanitarian need and everyone in Israel appreciates that. They also believe, though, that delaying operation in Rafah is not going to aid that situation, it’s not going to improve that situation, because whileever Hamas is on the ground, it is a threat both to the IDF and Israel, but also to civilian peacekeepers and aid workers who are seeking to deliver that aid into Gaza. It is unsafe to do so and risky to do so. And so really, Hamas is the problem here. They have been the problem from the very beginning. They have chosen the site of this conflict. They have chosen to have themselves in the civilian population in Gaza. They've chosen to put data centres under UNWRA headquarters, they've chosen to put weapons in schools. And unfortunately, that means it has been a very significant civilian toll, but one which the IDF assures us and others that they have tried to minimise as much as possible.
GILBERT: Your former colleague Josh Frydenberg, the former treasurer, has been in Israel for the last week or so. He's urged Prime Minister Albanese to make the visit as well. He said it's no photo op. It's an opportunity like after September 11th, to demonstrate moral courage, that this pivotal moment in history requires and express solidarity with a fellow democracy. The Prime Minister has been cautious about this, not wanting to be a distraction or distract from the efforts of the Israeli authorities. What's your read now? Having been to Israel and talking to us today from Jerusalem.
PATERSON: Kieran, it's a great source of disappointment for the Australian Jewish community that the Prime Minister has not yet made the effort to come here, and it was very hurtful to them that when the foreign minister came here that she didn't bother to go and visit the sites of the 7th October atrocities. In fact, on the plane on the way over here I bumped into members of the Australian Jewish community coming to visit family and friends and to engage in aid and other work here, and they expressed that disappointment to me very directly, and their appreciation for the fact that myself, my Coalition colleagues, are coming to demonstrate our solidarity with Israel in it's darkest hour. This the greatest challenge the Jewish state has faced since its foundation. This is the greatest loss of Jewish life since the Holocaust. And for the Australian Prime Minister to not join all those other world leaders, almost every G7 countries’ leaders visited in the immediate aftermath of 7th October, I think it's an abrogation of leadership and a display of weakness from the Prime Minister. I fear it is because he would fear that domestic political backlash. But that is not leadership. Leadership is doing the right thing. Leadership is standing up for our values and standing up for our interests. And the Prime Minister should come here at the earliest opportunity.
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