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April 23, 2025
RAF EPSTEIN:
How much do we need to spend on the Navy, the Air Force, the Army? The Trump Administration say Australia should spend something like 3% of our economy on defence. It is a number that the Coalition will match. For comparison, Labor plans to spend 2.3% of our economy on defence within 10 years. The Coalition plans to get to 3%. James Paterson is the Shadow Home Affairs Minister and one of the Liberal Senators for Victoria, good morning.
JAMES PATERSON:
Good morning.
RAF EPSTEIN:
You're going to get us to 3% of GDP. Why did you pick Donald Trump's number?
JAMES PATERSON:
Raf, I'm not surprised that you want to frame it that way, but the advice that we've taken is from people like Sir Angus Houston. He conducted the Defence Strategic Review for the Albanese Labor Government and he said, we need to get to 3% of GDP. People like Sir Peter Cosgrove, former Governor-General, former Chief of Army, have said that we need to get 3% GDP. And that's the advice we've taken. But you could equally say that we were inspired by Poland, or by the Baltic states, or most of Western Europe, who are aiming for similar targets.
RAF EPSTEIN:
Trump has been the loudest, though, hasn't he?
JAMES PATERSON:
No, I don't agree with that at all. I mean, if you tune into this debate for five minutes, maybe you would think that. But if you've been listening to this debate for years, you would understand that the strategic circumstances that Australia faces are the most dire they've been since the end of World War II. The threats are very real in our region. We need to step up to that.
RAF EPSTEIN:
So you mentioned Poland, they're right next door to Russia, and they spend 4% of their economy. Are you saying that we face the same threat as a nation that is right on Russia's doorstep?
JAMES PATERSON:
Thankfully, no, but what Poland's experience shows or what Ukraine's experience shows or what the Baltic states' experience shows is that you can think that you're safe. You can think the danger is not there, and it can change very quickly. Five years ago, people would not have said that we would be seeing the largest land war in Europe, and yet that's what we have today, the largest land war in Europe since the end of World War II and things can change quickly in our region.
RAF EPSTEIN:
So things can change quickly, what are you worried about? Like, what's the threat here?
JAMES PATERSON:
Well, what we do know is that the Chinese government is engaged in the largest peacetime buildup of military capabilities since the end of World War II. And it's a very formidable power, and it has very expansionist aims in our region. And you can rely on very sober-minded people like Sir Angus Houston, who says that in his lifetime, he's not seen a greater threat to Australia's national security. What we want to do, Raf, is prevent conflict in our regions.
RAF EPSTEIN:
Are you saying that you think China might attack us?
JAMES PATERSON:
No, Raf, I'm not saying that. What I'm saying is sober-minded national security experts have been looking at these problems for all their adult lives, tell us that this is a dangerous moment in history. That we need to be prepared for it, and that hopefully we can help prevent conflict. And the best way to do that is through deterrence. Now, if we invest adequately in our defence, if we acquire the capability we need, and if we do it in conjunction with allies in the region, I'm very optimistic that we can make sure that there is no outbreak of conflict in our region. But if we fail to invest, then I think we are really rolling the dice in a way that's irresponsible.
RAF EPSTEIN:
We'll have a word as well to the Defence Minister before 9 o'clock, Labor's Richard Miles. James Paterson is with us, the Shadow Home Affairs Minister. James, the $21 billion, the budget isn't a magic pudding. I know that you agree with that. But you're not saying where the extra money comes from. If you don't say that, that must mean you're going to cut something?
JAMES PATERSON:
Raf, you know that as is normal in election campaigns, oppositions release their costings once all their policies are out and we will not be any different.
RAF EPSTEIN:
But you are leaving yourself just wide open, aren't you?
JAMES PATERSON:
Well, I don't think so. I think we'll be doing exactly what the Labor Party did before the last election, which is releasing our costings before election day for people to judge. We've done very careful work on this to make sure that we can afford to pay for the capability that we need. And we think we've found the right balance of an increase in defence spending which is material, which will help us acquire the capability we need like a fourth squadron of joint strike fighters which the Labor party cut, and other investments in things like missiles, and drones, and upgrades of bases, and facilities but doing so in a way that's fiscally responsible, we will outline that in a normal way.
RAF EPSTEIN:
But aren't you just fuelling this Labor attack that you've got to cut something to pay for this? If you're not telling us how you're going to pay this, then it looks like a cut.
JAMES PATERSON:
Well, I can't control the lies that the Labor party tells in this campaign, but I thought the Prime Minister was really confronted by those in the debate last night. I mean, he's been putting out this figure of the costing of our nuclear plan, which is based on a discredited partisan organisation, when the CSIRO says the cost will be a fraction of what the Prime Minister has been saying.
RAF EPSTEIN:
I do want to try and confine this to defence if we can. I can't control your answers, of course. One thing I wanted to ask you about is, I guess, our priorities. Right now, people are listening, they do not have enough for their rent. People cannot afford insurance, they can't afford to buy meat. But you want to spend $21 billion on this. Are you saying that the military risk is bigger than the issues we face right now at home.
JAMES PATERSON:
Raf, you're right, it's been a tough three years for a lot of Australians. Grocery prices are up 30%, electricity prices are up 32%, gas prices are up 34%, and that's the cost of living crisis that's unfolded on Anthony Albanese's watch. We will help by providing immediate relief to that.
RAF EPSTEIN:
This is your biggest spend though, isn't it? Defence?
JAMES PATERSON:
Well, hear me out, Raf. We're going to spend billions of dollars on cutting people's petrol and diesel tax by 25 cents a litre. We are going to spend billions by returning up to $1,200 to 85% of taxpayers in the next financial year.
RAF EPSTEIN:
Ok I want to interrupt here, James Paterson. Both of those measures are temporary and one off. This is $21 billion into the foreseeable future. You're spending a lot more on the military than you are on those immediate relief measures.
JAMES PATERSON:
Well, you asked me what we're doing for cost of living. I'm outlining the things that we will immediately do when we come to office to provide people with that urgent relief they need so they can meet the costs that they've incurred over the last three years under this government. But we also have a longer term plan on cost of leaving as well, which is about reforming our energy system to deliver low prices. You and I have discussed before our plan to drive more gas into the east coast domestic market and independent analysis has shown that will drive down the price by 23% for wholesale prices and that'll have flow on benefits, both for people's household budgets directly in terms of lower gas and energy prices, but also it will flow through to other areas of the economy, like groceries and manufacturing, by reducing their costs as well.
RAF EPSTEIN:
James Paterson, just because we're speaking to you about the defence spend, I do want to speak to you, about your record in those last nine years in government. Right now, the Navy is shrinking. In 2015, your government said new frigates would be built in 2020. That didn't happen. And the design you chose for those frigates is slower, heavier, less safe, and not as lethal. That's a pretty poor track record, isn't it?
JAMES PATERSON:
What we inherited in 2013 when we won the election from the last Labor government, the Rudd-Gillard government, was the lowest level of defence spending as a percentage of GDP since 1938, just 1.5% Of GDP.
RAF EPSTEIN:
It's their fault it took you seven years and you couldn't meet the seven years, to build them in 2020?
JAMES PATERSON:
And in those nine years, we restored defence spending back up to 2% of GDP, which, really frankly, is the bare minimum, and this new Labor government has done nothing to add to that. It's still at 2% of GDP three years in. What we're committing to do is to go much further than that, but I'm very proud of our record on defence and national security. The AUKUS agreement which we secured under the Morrison government is a generational, game-changer agreement.
RAF EPSTEIN:
Okay, but just on the actual shipbuilding, you had nine years, you chose a design that even ASPI says was terrible, you said the building would happen, it didn't happen. That's Labor's fault?
JAMES PATERSON:
Well, defence acquisitions take a long time Raf, if you can't flick a switch and get them overnight, in the previous six-year Labor government, the Rudd-Gillard government, they did not commission a single new ship. Not one, not a single new ship in six years. And so for a government to turn that around on a dime is a hard thing to do, but that government invested significantly in air warfare destroyers and other capabilities that are going to stand the test of time when they do come online.
RAF EPSTEIN:
Alright, just to end on this, James Paterson, if I can, I was asking you about your costings. You're right, a lot of time the opposition's released costings sort of two, three, four days before the election day, but more than half a million people voted yesterday. Like that's just one day of early voting. Is it fair to those voters if you don't release your costing until the end of the week?
JAMES PATERSON:
Well, Raf, if you're going to a polling booth and voting earlier, I think it's probably because you've made up your mind, you've decided that you've got enough information to make the decision that you want to, to prefer your party of choice, whatever that may be. But we will do at least what Anthony Albanese did at the last election by releasing the costings before election day.
RAF EPSTEIN:
Do you want one week and not two weeks of early voting?
JAMES PATERSON:
Look, I don't have any problem with early voting. I think it's become an established part of the voting system. People do value it and rely on it, and some people just don't have the time to vote on election day, and we should make it as easy as possible in this country for people to vote, not hard.
RAF EPSTEIN:
Thanks for your time.
JAMES PATERSON:
Thanks Raf.
ENDS